The HS2 Project is a planned high speed railway linking London with the Midlands, the North West of England and Yorkshire. The route for construction purposes is divided into 3 main areas (South, Central, and North) and these in turn are each divided into 3 sub-areas. As the project proceeds through the parliamentary process (Hybrid Bill due for Royal Assent in December 2016), there are a number of Baseline Reviews being carried out.
Equib has been requested to undertake a quantitative schedule risk analysis in order to assess the confidence levels of achieving the deterministic dates for key milestone delivery for each sub-area and the target in service date.
For Baseline 5, a full and detailed quantitative schedule risk analysis has been carried out on a high level schedule for Phase 1. This activity has involved developing and agreeing a high level network schedule (circa 500 activities) suitable for risk and uncertainty modelling which has been created from the detailed schedule (circa 5,000 activities) for Phase 1. The risk model takes into account duration uncertainties – for example variations in design, tunnelling rates, etc. and some specific risks such as archaeology, ecology, delays in diverting utilities, etc.
Sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to identify key drivers within the programme and the improvements to the schedule that could be achieved if these drivers are successfully managed.